On The Eve of Elections, Colorado’s Still Magenta

      Colorado’s first mail-in election is proving to be difficult to predict. Even though it is just two days before the final count, polls and opinions are divided. The race didn’t start out this close. Democratic incumbent Mark Udall started September with a four point lead, but lost it to Republican Cory Gardner by October. Since then, Gardner has continued to lead in the polls, though the margin between the two candidates has yet to go over four. It would seem as that Gardner is best set to take the senate seat, but the margins are not wide enough for it to be a sure thing.

Fig. 1

       According to polls averaged by Real Clear Politics, Udall lead the race until the end of September, when Gardner took the lead. In such a close race, skewed polls are often a source of contention. While Colorado polls have a history of being skewed in favor of Republicans (fig. 1), the differences are not enough to over come Gardner's lead. And even though it would decrease the margin between them, it would not account for the complete switch from Udall to Gardner. Many blame this 8 point switch on Udall's belligerent marketing.

Fig. 2

       Mark Udall's campaign has been centered around women's rights. This is all well and good, as women are a major target demographic for democrats, but Udall has spent a disproportionate amount of money on women's rights ads (fig. 2). Thereby leaving out other important demographics like Latinos and young people. As we went further into the campaign, this strategy proved to backfire on Udall. In addition to alienating a major portion of his constituents, he also lost quite a few woman's votes (fig. 3). Udall attacked Gardner for trying to ban certain birth control methods and for supporting the 'person hood' movement. While both of these are true statements, Gardner managed to divert most of the heat by calling for over the counter birth control. Instead of switching positions and finding another weakness, Udall's charges just became more outrageous. He accused Gardner of trying to ban condoms. This just made him look belligerent and false.

Fig.3

       Taking advantage of his opponents unpopularity and single mindedness, Gardner has billed himself as bi-partisan and a ‘new republican’, hoping to sway the 1/3 undecided voters. Colorado has always swung between Democrat and Republican. Because of this, only moderates stand a chance at being voted in. Gardner emphasizes his split from the gridlock seen in D.C. and his commitment to 'getting things done', in an attempt to further highlight Udall's connection to our unpopular 'do-nothing' president. Gardner has also managed to slip passed normally environmentally conscious Coloradans. He's supported by oil companies and advocated for the keystone pipeline. But Gardner's call for jobs and 'green energy' has created the illusion of an environmentally aware candidate, thus adding to his appeal to displeased democrats and the undecided. His call for jobs is especially attractive for Latino voters.

Fig. 4

         Although women and Latino are more likely to support democrats, Udall's single issue-like campaign has sent some voters over the the republicans. This in part explains why Udall has only a 3 point lead with Latino voters, and a six point lead with women. In addition to gaining votes usually belonging to democrats, Gardner has access to more voters than Udall. Gardner, like many republicans, is most popular with voters 44-65 years of age (Fig. 4). This group is most like to vote during non-presidential elections, giving Gardner an edge. Udall's popularity with 18-29 year olds isn't as helpful, as they are much less likely to vote in midterm elections. This disparity can be seen in that as of this writing, 104,487 more republicans have voted than democrats.
        It will be a close race no matter how you look at it. Gardner may have the lead in the polls, but only by a few points. This means that every vote counts. And if the Democrats can some how turn around their campaign in the last few days of the election, then they might have a chance.

Works Citations

Bartels, Lynn. "Colorado Senate: Udall Holds Lead but Race Could Go "either Way"" The Denver Post 11 Sept. 2014. Web. 31 Oct. 2014. <http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26514434/colorado-senate-poll-udall-holds-lead-but-race-could>.
 

Bierman, Noah. "In Colorado, Some See a Proxy for the Nation." The Boston Globe 2 Nov. 2014. The Boston Globe. Web. 2 Nov. 2014. <http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2014/11/01/senate-race-colorado-proxy-battlefield-for-midterms-and-beyond/t1Kgin7bBcY3LMIvk3w0WO/story.html>.
 

Carlson, Margaret. "Democrats' Women Problem in Colorado." BloombergView 31 Oct. 2014. Bloomberg.com. Web. 1 Nov. 2014. <http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-31/democrats-women-problem-in-colorado>.
 

"Election 2014 - Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall." RealClearPolitics. RealClearPolitics. Web. 29 Oct. 2014. <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html>.
 

John, Frank. "In Key Colorado County, a Volatile Election with Big Stakes." The Denver Post 13 Oct. 2014. Web. 31 Oct. 2014. <http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26715818/key-colorado-county-volatile-election-big-stakes>.
 

John, Frank. "Colorado U.S. Senate: Final Denver Post Poll Shows Deadlocked Contest." The Denver Post 30 Oct. 2014. Web. 31 Oct. 2014. <http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26829801/colorado-u-s-senate-final-denver-post-poll>.
 

Rittiman, Brandon. "The Most Mentioned Topics in Colorado Political Ads." The Most Mentioned Topics in Colorado Political Ads. 9News, 28 Oct. 2014. Web. 30 Oct. 2014. <http://www.9news.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/28/colorado-politcal-ads-topics-2014/18083295/>.
 

Silver, Nate. "Are The State Polls Skewed?" FiveThirtyEightPolitics. 2 Nov. 2014. Web. 2 Nov. 2014. <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-state-polls-skewed/>.
 

YouGov. "YouGov 2014 Final Pre-election Polls." YouGov: What the World Thinks. 31 Oct. 2014. Web. 1 Nov. 2014. <http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/10/31/yougov-2014-final-pre-election-polls/>.
 

YouGov. "Data - Final Pre-election Colorado." YouGov: What the World Thinks. YouGov, 31 Oct. 2014. Web. 1 Nov. 2014. <https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/10/31/data-final-pre-election-colorado/>.