Iowa Senate Race
Armani Khan
The two contenders are Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley who are both competing for Democrat Tom Harkin's old Senate seat. While Braley has a 12% advantage over Ernest with female voters, Ernst leads by 15% among men. Braley also is leading with urban voters but Ernst is more popular with rural voters. However Iowa is largely a rural state which gives Ernst an advantage. A Quinnipiac survey conducted in late October also showed Ernst with a slight advantage. To support Braley however, big Democrat names have been brought to the state such as Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, and Vice President Joe Biden. However there is strong pro-Republican sentiment. Big Republican names have also accompanied Ernst such as Marco Rubio and John McCain. The state is leaning Republican because of the popular Republican governor, a liberal senator, and a conservative senator. It also has a Republican state legislature. The Ernst campaign is showing up in places where Republicans don't usually go according to one voter. Many Iowans also hold a grudge against Braley for his comment on Senator Grassey as a "farmer that never went to law school". Senator Grassey is very popular which caused a lot of public resentment. According to a Fox News poll, Joni Ernst is slightly leading.
These are polls consistently done by Huffington Post since July 2013 until the present day to predict the election.
I believe that Republican Joni Ernst will win. Bruce Braley has made many blunders over the course of the campaign. He insulted both the state's farming traditions and popular Senator Grassey. He has also threatened legal action against his neighbor which taints his reputation. Ernst on the other hand has not made similar blunders according to the New York Times. Bruce Braley has largely drawn on his Iowan heritage starting from his great-grandfather and concluding with his 57 years of life in Iowa. He also has more moderate views and is largely focused on domestic policy. He warns voters that if elected, Ernst will cut Medicaid and the minimum wage. Ernst is a combat veteran with the National Guard and advocates for stronger foreign policy and focuses on military affairs. However she also wants to prosecute doctors who perform abortions. While Braley is largely campaigning on his Iowan heritage, Ernst has taken a stronger stand on issues. Historically, Democrat voter turnout is lower during mid-term elections. Sentiment against President Obama is also running high with the many problems that Obamacare has faced. This makes Democrats less popular. With all of these factors combined, I believe that Republican Joni Ernst will win.
References
2014 Iowa Senate: Ernst vs. Braley. (2014, November 3). Huffington Post. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-iowa-senate-ernst-vs-braley
Steinhauer, J. (2014, November 1). Endurance Test of a Race, for Candidates and Voters in Iowa. New York Times. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/02/us/politics/endurance-test-of-a-race-for-candidates-and-voters-in-iowa.html?_r=0
Fox News Poll: Iowa Senate Race. (2014, October 30). Fox News. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/31/fox-news-poll-iowa-senate-race/
FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast. (2014, November 3). Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
Glueck, K. (2014, October 31). Democrats fear Iowa slipping away. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/democrats-iowa-2014-elections-112394.html
Bradner, E. (2014, October 31). Poll: Republican Ernst has small lead in tight Iowa Senate race. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
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