Will the Senate go red or blue?

The composition of the Senate is very important and has a great impact on President Obama's term. A Republican Senate will erode whatever support he has and will effectively neuter him during the rest of his term. A Democratic Senate however will allow him to enact policies. The overall trend of the elections seems to be going Republican however. The New York Times gives a 69% chance that the Republicans will have a majority in the Senate. They are not the only publication to do so however. The New York Times also summarized the chances that 538, Politico, Daily Kos, Huffington Post, Princeton Election Consortium, Washington Post as well as other publications gave. Without fail, all publications summarized said that the Senate would go Republican. President Obama's Obamacare has been very unpopular in this country. Even those who initially supported the principle behind backed off. There were numerous technical and security problems. The launch of the Obamacare website was simply too rushed. This gives the Republicans the ammunition they need to attack the Democrats. To win the local elections, the Republicans have been tying the Democrats to the most prominent Democrat, President Obama. With the public resentment over President Obama, this really hurts the Democrats. Democrats have even begun distancing themselves from President Obama. One candidate even refused to answer if she had voted for Obama in 2012. While it seems to be almost guaranteed that the Senate will go Republican, a recent Fox News Poll says that the result is still quite close depending on the outcome of certain tossup races. There is a possibility that certain races might go to a runoff. We might not even know the outcome after Election Day if that happens. According to CNN News however, the outcome depends on turnout.
References
Who will win the Senate race? (2014, November 2). New York Times. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

Vlahos, K. (2014, October 30). Republicans have Senate takeover in their sights, races remain close. Retrieved November 3, 2014.

Collinson, S. (2014, October 31). Senate control hinges on turnout. Retrieved November 3, 2014.

Iowa: Does Braley have it in him to save the Democrats or will the Republicans prevail?

                                        Iowa Senate Race

Armani Khan

        The Iowa Senate race is a tossup. At the moment Republican Ernst is leading but only by 2% in the CNN/ORC poll. It is one of several swing states that President Obama won during the 2012 presidential election that Republicans are now trying to gain. This race is very important as it is one of six races that could assure the Republicans control of the Senate according to CNN news.
       The two contenders are Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley who are both competing for Democrat Tom Harkin's old Senate seat. While Braley has a 12% advantage over Ernest with female voters, Ernst leads by 15% among men. Braley also is leading with urban voters but Ernst is more popular with rural voters. However Iowa is largely a rural state which gives Ernst an advantage. A Quinnipiac survey conducted in late October also showed Ernst with a slight advantage. To support Braley however, big Democrat names have been brought to the state such as Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, and Vice President Joe Biden. However there is strong pro-Republican sentiment. Big Republican names have also accompanied Ernst such as Marco Rubio and John McCain. The state is leaning Republican because of the popular Republican governor, a liberal senator, and a conservative senator. It also has a Republican state legislature. The Ernst campaign is showing up in places where Republicans don't usually go according to one voter. Many Iowans also hold a grudge against Braley for his comment on Senator Grassey as a "farmer that never went to law school". Senator Grassey is very popular which caused a lot of public resentment. According to a Fox News poll, Joni Ernst is slightly leading.

These are polls consistently done by Huffington Post since July 2013 until the present day to predict the election.


I believe that Republican Joni Ernst will win. Bruce Braley has made many blunders over the course of the campaign. He insulted both the state's farming traditions and popular Senator Grassey. He has also threatened legal action against his neighbor which taints his reputation. Ernst on the other hand has not made similar blunders according to the New York Times. Bruce Braley has largely drawn on his Iowan heritage starting from his great-grandfather and concluding with his 57 years of life in Iowa. He also has more moderate views and is largely focused on domestic policy. He warns voters that if elected, Ernst will cut Medicaid and the minimum wage. Ernst is a combat veteran with the National Guard and advocates for stronger foreign policy and focuses on military affairs. However she also wants to prosecute doctors who perform abortions. While Braley is largely campaigning on his Iowan heritage, Ernst has taken a stronger stand on issues. Historically, Democrat voter turnout is lower during mid-term elections. Sentiment against President Obama is also running high with the many problems that Obamacare has faced. This makes Democrats less popular. With all of these factors combined, I believe that Republican Joni Ernst will win.
References
2014 Iowa Senate: Ernst vs. Braley. (2014, November 3). Huffington Post. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-iowa-senate-ernst-vs-braley

Steinhauer, J. (2014, November 1). Endurance Test of a Race, for Candidates and Voters in Iowa. New York Times. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/02/us/politics/endurance-test-of-a-race-for-candidates-and-voters-in-iowa.html?_r=0

Fox News Poll: Iowa Senate Race. (2014, October 30). Fox News. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/31/fox-news-poll-iowa-senate-race/

FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast. (2014, November 3). Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Glueck, K. (2014, October 31). Democrats fear Iowa slipping away. Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/democrats-iowa-2014-elections-112394.html

Bradner, E. (2014, October 31). Poll: Republican Ernst has small lead in tight Iowa Senate race. Retrieved November 3, 2014.

Alaska

     The senate race in Alaska has attracted a lot of attention because this race will likely determine if the democratic party will hold the majority in the senate or if the republicans will take its place.The race is between three parties although only the candidates of the major parties are shown to have a chance at winning this race. The race started of rather excitedly with an incumbent as the candidate for the democratic party and candidate for the libertarian party getting chosen without campaigning and then dropping out of the race via Facebook.

Candidates and their history

     The candidate for the democratic party, Mark Begich, was the first democratic to be elected to the Senate in Alaska since 1974. He has been the senator from 2008 to present time and the mayor, chair, and assembly man of the city of anchorage during various times in his life. 

     The candidate for the republican party, Dan Sullivan, was the commissioner of natural resources and acting attorney general for the state of Alaska. Also unlike Mark Begich he has gone to college and has a bachelors in economics.

Problems Regarding the Election

     There are many problems regarding this election. The biggest two being that Mark Begich is a democrat and voted for Obama Care against the wishes of the majority and that Dan Sullivan was born in Ohio and therefore is not considered completely a part of Alaska as can be seen in the following ad campaign.

                                                
     There are also problems regarding the voting process itself. Although there have been a higher percentage of people voting early in the early ballots, mostly the younger and the otherwise wouldn't have bothered voters, and as can be seen in Image 1 Alaska has a history of inaccurate poll accuracy with the actual margins differing from average poll margins by as much as 8 points, never having gotten below 3.3 % error. Also Alaskans have received letters stating theirs and 11 other peoples voting history as well as who they voted for. This act was sponsored by the Alaska State Voter Program and the Opportunity Alliance PAC whose main sponsor decided to support the Republicans.

Image 1

Issues Regarding the Election

     This may be the first election that the rural population plays a key role in. Both candidates have realized that without at least some of the votes from the rural population it is impossible to win the election which is why Mark Begich decided to go to the fishery debates and although Dan Sullivan had decided to abstain from the event however once a columnist wrote that no candidate who skipped the debate had ever won an election he decided to go, but wasn't able to get a table.

     However many people are in favor of Dan Sullivan just because they hate Obama and his policies. Mark Begich while he was in office passed only two pieces of legislation one being the much hated Obama care and the other, at least to most people, not important at all.

     The campaigning ads are also playing an important part in this election. One of the topics had to do with Dan Sullivan and him, according to Mark Begich, allowing the sentence for a prisoner to be to short allowing the prisoner to commit even more crimes however this move backfired on Mark Begich as he got complaints from the victims family members to take down the ad as it could sway the judge's vote on the issue also Dan Sullivan had refuted with the fact that at the time of the sentencing he wasn't in office yet. Another strike against Mark Begich came when he put up the following ad that said that he worked as a great team with Lisa Murkoski, the other senator, but she had then written Mark Begich a letter to take the ad down as she did not support his statements.

                                              

Results

Even though Dan Sullivan has a short residency in Alaska, Mark Begich's "failed" years as a senator and his relations with President Obama,both being part of the democratic party, may have placed Dan Sullivan ahead by a few points in this race. Not to mention that Alaska is known to vote Republican in the presidential election, ever since the 1960s, and you have a race that has a good chance of leaning towards the sides of the republicans.

Works Citations:

• Thiessen, M. (2014, August 30). 5 things to know about Alaska's midterm election. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• Morrow, W. (2014, October 30). Early voter turnout compares favorably to last midterms. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• Schwing, E. (2014, October 21). In a Mid-Term Election Year, Are Ballot Measures, Candidates Enough to Draw Alaska Native Voters? Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• Cohn, N. (2014, August 20). Alaska Might Be More Friendly to Democrats Than It Appears. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• D'Oro, R. (2014, October 30). Group exposes voting histories of Alaska residents. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• Riccardi, N. (2014, October 6). Alaska's Begich battles midterm partisan undertow. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• 2014 Election Forecast & Predictions. (2014, October 31). Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://www.wtsp.com/pages/interactives/elections-forecast-2014/#/race/senate-ak0
• McBeath, J. (2014, October 29). 2014 Midterms: Key Issues in the Alaska Senate Race. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• Diamond, J. (2014, October 28). Alaskans getting shamed into voting by mailer. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• Enten, H., & Silver, N. (2014, October 28). Why The Senate Polling In Alaska Is Making Us Sweat. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• Alaska Election Results 2014: Dates, Analysis, Full Midterm Overview, Complete Updates. (2014, October 29). Retrieved November 3, 2014.
• United States Senate elections in Alaska, 2014. (n.d.). Retrieved November 3, 2014, from http://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections_in_Alaska,_2014

Georgia

This year it seems as if the mid-term election will go to the republicans, and though there are many races where the winner is determined, there are those where the race is a tossup.  One of those races is in Georgia. Early on in the race the Democrats were the favorite to win the race. Now though the race seems to be going to the Republicans.

Candidates

David Perdue, Republican and favorite to win, is a businessman and a cousin to the former governor and the state’s attempt at trying to fend off the Democrat’s. Perdue is a strict conservative. He is interested in decreasing the national debt by cutting failed government agencies and trying to grow the economy without tax increases. He also plans to help pass a term limit and repeal ObamaCare. Purdue is concerned with many of the Republican Party's values. Things like gun control, put stricter limits on immigration, and much more. Michelle Nunn, the Democrat candidate, is the daughter of a former senator and is hoping to use her father’s name and the changing demographic to her advantage. Nunn hopes to try and institute education reform and institute a change in the tax code. She wants to create more American jobs that will try to help stop the impending fiscal crisis. Nunn wants to cut corporal taxes for American businesses and eliminating tax breaks for companies that outsource their jobs and manufacturing overseas.
Prediction

There is an over 50% chance that the Senate seat will go to the Republicans. From the beginning there was only a small chance that Ms. Nunn could win even after the rapid change in the demographic of the state. The only real chance that Nunn had to win the election was to gain 30 of the Caucasian vote.  As of now the most recent polls show that she only got 25% of that vote. Even if there was a favorable turnout among the black voters, the lower percentage of white voters foe Nunn would leave her at least 3 percent short of the popular vote. The Republicans will probably end up taking the seat and if Perdue wins, there is an unlikely chance that the Democrats will gain a majority in the Senate. The Republicans used Nunn's status as a Democrat to try and gain momentum in the race and it seems to have worked. As of right now President Obama's handling of the economy and politics, coupled with his affiliation as a Democrat is a dampener to many of the Democratic campaigns.
In the Long Run

The polls right now show that the Republicans will win the Senate. Right now there is a very good chance that the Republicans will be the majority. However there is a chance that this might not help them for the future. Some think that the Republican majority now is due to the low voter turn out in the younger and non-white population. These more liberal voters are not swayed to the opinions of the conservative Republicans that have done little to try and attract voters to their cause.

References Cohn, N. (2014, November 1). Why 2014 Isn't as Good as It Seems for the Republicans. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/02/upshot/why-2014-is-actually-shaping-up-as-a-bad-republican-year.html?abt=0002&abg=0 Cohn, N. (2014, November 2). Michelle Nunn?s Hopes in Georgia Are Fading in Final Stretch. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/03/upshot/michelle-nunns-hopes-in-georgia-are-fading-in-final-stretch.html?abt=0002&abg=0 Georgia Senate Election: David Perdue vs. Michelle Nunn - Polls, Projections, Results - Election Projection. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/georgia-senate-election.php Ideas | Michelle Nunn. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.michellenunn.com/ideas The Issues. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://perduesenate.com/issues/the-issues/

 

On The Eve of Elections, Colorado’s Still Magenta

      Colorado’s first mail-in election is proving to be difficult to predict. Even though it is just two days before the final count, polls and opinions are divided. The race didn’t start out this close. Democratic incumbent Mark Udall started September with a four point lead, but lost it to Republican Cory Gardner by October. Since then, Gardner has continued to lead in the polls, though the margin between the two candidates has yet to go over four. It would seem as that Gardner is best set to take the senate seat, but the margins are not wide enough for it to be a sure thing.

Fig. 1

       According to polls averaged by Real Clear Politics, Udall lead the race until the end of September, when Gardner took the lead. In such a close race, skewed polls are often a source of contention. While Colorado polls have a history of being skewed in favor of Republicans (fig. 1), the differences are not enough to over come Gardner's lead. And even though it would decrease the margin between them, it would not account for the complete switch from Udall to Gardner. Many blame this 8 point switch on Udall's belligerent marketing.

Fig. 2

       Mark Udall's campaign has been centered around women's rights. This is all well and good, as women are a major target demographic for democrats, but Udall has spent a disproportionate amount of money on women's rights ads (fig. 2). Thereby leaving out other important demographics like Latinos and young people. As we went further into the campaign, this strategy proved to backfire on Udall. In addition to alienating a major portion of his constituents, he also lost quite a few woman's votes (fig. 3). Udall attacked Gardner for trying to ban certain birth control methods and for supporting the 'person hood' movement. While both of these are true statements, Gardner managed to divert most of the heat by calling for over the counter birth control. Instead of switching positions and finding another weakness, Udall's charges just became more outrageous. He accused Gardner of trying to ban condoms. This just made him look belligerent and false.

Fig.3

       Taking advantage of his opponents unpopularity and single mindedness, Gardner has billed himself as bi-partisan and a ‘new republican’, hoping to sway the 1/3 undecided voters. Colorado has always swung between Democrat and Republican. Because of this, only moderates stand a chance at being voted in. Gardner emphasizes his split from the gridlock seen in D.C. and his commitment to 'getting things done', in an attempt to further highlight Udall's connection to our unpopular 'do-nothing' president. Gardner has also managed to slip passed normally environmentally conscious Coloradans. He's supported by oil companies and advocated for the keystone pipeline. But Gardner's call for jobs and 'green energy' has created the illusion of an environmentally aware candidate, thus adding to his appeal to displeased democrats and the undecided. His call for jobs is especially attractive for Latino voters.

Fig. 4

         Although women and Latino are more likely to support democrats, Udall's single issue-like campaign has sent some voters over the the republicans. This in part explains why Udall has only a 3 point lead with Latino voters, and a six point lead with women. In addition to gaining votes usually belonging to democrats, Gardner has access to more voters than Udall. Gardner, like many republicans, is most popular with voters 44-65 years of age (Fig. 4). This group is most like to vote during non-presidential elections, giving Gardner an edge. Udall's popularity with 18-29 year olds isn't as helpful, as they are much less likely to vote in midterm elections. This disparity can be seen in that as of this writing, 104,487 more republicans have voted than democrats.
        It will be a close race no matter how you look at it. Gardner may have the lead in the polls, but only by a few points. This means that every vote counts. And if the Democrats can some how turn around their campaign in the last few days of the election, then they might have a chance.

Works Citations

Bartels, Lynn. "Colorado Senate: Udall Holds Lead but Race Could Go "either Way"" The Denver Post 11 Sept. 2014. Web. 31 Oct. 2014. <http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26514434/colorado-senate-poll-udall-holds-lead-but-race-could>.
 

Bierman, Noah. "In Colorado, Some See a Proxy for the Nation." The Boston Globe 2 Nov. 2014. The Boston Globe. Web. 2 Nov. 2014. <http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2014/11/01/senate-race-colorado-proxy-battlefield-for-midterms-and-beyond/t1Kgin7bBcY3LMIvk3w0WO/story.html>.
 

Carlson, Margaret. "Democrats' Women Problem in Colorado." BloombergView 31 Oct. 2014. Bloomberg.com. Web. 1 Nov. 2014. <http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-31/democrats-women-problem-in-colorado>.
 

"Election 2014 - Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall." RealClearPolitics. RealClearPolitics. Web. 29 Oct. 2014. <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html>.
 

John, Frank. "In Key Colorado County, a Volatile Election with Big Stakes." The Denver Post 13 Oct. 2014. Web. 31 Oct. 2014. <http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26715818/key-colorado-county-volatile-election-big-stakes>.
 

John, Frank. "Colorado U.S. Senate: Final Denver Post Poll Shows Deadlocked Contest." The Denver Post 30 Oct. 2014. Web. 31 Oct. 2014. <http://www.denverpost.com/election2014/ci_26829801/colorado-u-s-senate-final-denver-post-poll>.
 

Rittiman, Brandon. "The Most Mentioned Topics in Colorado Political Ads." The Most Mentioned Topics in Colorado Political Ads. 9News, 28 Oct. 2014. Web. 30 Oct. 2014. <http://www.9news.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/28/colorado-politcal-ads-topics-2014/18083295/>.
 

Silver, Nate. "Are The State Polls Skewed?" FiveThirtyEightPolitics. 2 Nov. 2014. Web. 2 Nov. 2014. <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-state-polls-skewed/>.
 

YouGov. "YouGov 2014 Final Pre-election Polls." YouGov: What the World Thinks. 31 Oct. 2014. Web. 1 Nov. 2014. <http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/10/31/yougov-2014-final-pre-election-polls/>.
 

YouGov. "Data - Final Pre-election Colorado." YouGov: What the World Thinks. YouGov, 31 Oct. 2014. Web. 1 Nov. 2014. <https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/10/31/data-final-pre-election-colorado/>.